{ "$schema": "https://soudcoh.com/tools/data/index.json", "slug": "seo-vs-paid-payback-calculator", "name": "SEO against paid search", "category": "Organic and local", "url": "https://soudcoh.com/tools/seo-vs-paid-payback-calculator", "dataUrl": "https://soudcoh.com/tools/data/seo-vs-paid-payback-calculator.json", "currency": "AUD", "updated": "2026-08", "summary": "Value a search ranking against the paid clicks it replaces, find how many months the investment takes to pay back, and see the published odds of reaching the top ten.", "whatItDoes": [ "Converts monthly search volume and a target position into organic clicks, using published click-through rates by position.", "Prices those clicks at what you would pay for them on Google Ads, then subtracts what the SEO work costs to run.", "Adds up what you spend before the ranking arrives and works out how many months of surplus it takes to recover it — then shows the published probability that a new page reaches the top ten at all." ], "howToUse": [ "Enter the monthly search volume for the terms you are targeting. Use a keyword tool or Google Ads' own forecast, and add the terms up rather than using one.", "Pick the position you are aiming at. Only the four published positions are offered — see the note under the selector for why.", "Enter what you pay per click for the same terms on Google Ads, and what the SEO work costs a month.", "Enter how many months you expect it to take. Then read the odds line before you read the payback figure." ], "formula": [ "Organic clicks = monthly searches × click-through rate for the position", "Value of those clicks = organic clicks × cost per click", "Monthly surplus = value of clicks − monthly SEO cost", "Invested before ranking = monthly SEO cost × months to rank", "Payback = invested ÷ monthly surplus, in months" ], "interpret": [ "If the monthly surplus is negative once the ranking arrives, the SEO does not pay for itself at this volume and no amount of patience will change that.", "The payback period starts when the ranking arrives, not when the work does. Add the ramp to get the real time to break even.", "Compare the total invested against what the same money would have bought in paid clicks over the same period. Sometimes it is more; that is a legitimate reason to do both rather than to choose." ], "limitation": "Search volume estimates are rough, positions move, and the click-through rates here are averages across every kind of query — the same study reports position one ranging from 13.7% to 46.9% depending on what else is on the results page. Most importantly, this assumes you get there: Ahrefs tracked a million new URLs and found 1.74% reached the top ten within a year.", "inputs": [ { "key": "searches", "label": "Monthly searches", "kind": "number", "default": 4000, "min": 1, "max": 100000000, "unit": "count", "help": "Add up the terms you are targeting, not just the biggest one.", "sourceId": null, "sourceNote": null, "options": null }, { "key": "position", "label": "Target position", "kind": "select", "default": 3, "min": 1, "max": 10, "unit": "count", "help": "Only positions 1, 2, 3 and 10 are offered, because those are the only ones the study publishes.", "sourceId": "sistrix-2025", "sourceNote": "SISTRIX, 80 million keywords on mobile search, updated July 2025. Positions 4 to 9 are deliberately absent — interpolating them would be invention.", "options": [ { "label": "Position 1 — 28.5% of clicks", "value": 1 }, { "label": "Position 2 — 15.7% of clicks", "value": 2 }, { "label": "Position 3 — 11% of clicks", "value": 3 }, { "label": "Position 10 — 2.5% of clicks", "value": 10 } ] }, { "key": "cpc", "label": "What you pay per click on ads", "kind": "currency", "default": 8, "min": 0.05, "max": 1000, "unit": "AUD", "help": "For the same terms, from your own Google Ads account.", "sourceId": null, "sourceNote": null, "options": null }, { "key": "seoCost", "label": "SEO cost a month", "kind": "currency", "default": 2200, "min": 0, "max": 1000000, "unit": "AUD", "help": "Everything: retainer, content, technical work, links.", "sourceId": null, "sourceNote": null, "options": null }, { "key": "monthsToRank", "label": "Months before the ranking arrives", "kind": "number", "default": 9, "min": 1, "max": 60, "unit": "count", "help": "Your own expectation. Read the odds note before setting it low.", "sourceId": null, "sourceNote": null, "options": null } ], "defaults": { "searches": 4000, "position": 3, "cpc": 8, "seoCost": 2200, "monthsToRank": 9 }, "exampleResult": { "headline": { "label": "Months to break even from today", "value": "24 months", "note": "9 months to rank, then 15 months to pay back" }, "outputs": [ { "label": "Organic clicks a month", "value": "440", "note": "11% of 4,000 searches at position 3" }, { "label": "What those clicks cost on ads", "value": "$3,520", "note": "At $8.00 a click" }, { "label": "Monthly surplus once ranked", "value": "$1,320", "note": "After $2,200 of SEO cost" }, { "label": "Invested before the ranking arrives", "value": "$19,800", "note": "9 months at $2,200" }, { "label": "Paid clicks the same money buys now", "value": "2,475", "note": "Immediately, with no ranking risk" } ], "workings": [ { "label": "Organic clicks", "expression": "4,000 × 11% = 440" }, { "label": "Value of the clicks", "expression": "440 × $8.00 = $3,520" }, { "label": "Monthly surplus", "expression": "$3,520 − $2,200 = $1,320" }, { "label": "Invested before ranking", "expression": "$2,200 × 9 = $19,800" }, { "label": "Payback", "expression": "$19,800 ÷ $1,320 = 15 months" } ] }, "shareableExample": "https://soudcoh.com/tools/seo-vs-paid-payback-calculator?searches=4000&position=3&cpc=8", "faqs": [ { "question": "Is SEO cheaper than Google Ads?", "answer": "Eventually, and only if the ranking arrives. The arithmetic is straightforward: work out what the organic clicks would cost you to buy, subtract what the SEO costs to run, and divide the money you spent while waiting by the monthly surplus. What that calculation hides is the risk, so it belongs next to the odds. Ahrefs tracked a million new URLs for a year and found 1.74% reached the top ten — 6.11% when filtered to English content pages. Paid clicks arrive on the day you pay for them; organic ones arrive on a probability." }, { "question": "What percentage of clicks does the top result get?", "answer": "SISTRIX, measuring 80 million keywords on mobile search, puts position one at 28.5%, position two at 15.7%, position three at 11% and position ten at 2.5%. On a results page with no ads, panels or other features, position one rises to 34.2%. The same study reports position one ranging from 13.7% to 46.9% depending on what else is on the page — which is why a single figure should never be the basis of a forecast." }, { "question": "Why can I only pick positions 1, 2, 3 and 10?", "answer": "Because those are the only four the study publishes. Filling in positions four to nine would mean inventing six numbers and putting them on a page where somebody is about to copy one into a budget. Plenty of calculators do it. We would rather have four honest options than ten convenient ones." }, { "question": "How long does SEO take to work?", "answer": "Ahrefs' data says it tends to be fast or never: of the pages that did reach the top ten within a year, 40.82% got there inside the first month. It also found that 72.9% of pages currently in the top ten are more than three years old, and the average page at number one is about five years old. Those two findings together are the honest answer — new pages that are going to rank often move early, and the positions that hold are held by pages with years behind them." }, { "question": "Should I do SEO or paid ads first?", "answer": "Paid, in almost every case, for a service business that needs work this quarter. It produces enquiries immediately and it tells you which search terms actually convert, which is the single most useful input into an SEO plan. Start the SEO once you know which terms are worth the wait — the comparison this tool runs is far more reliable when the click prices and conversion rates in it come from your own account." } ], "sources": [ { "id": "sistrix-2025", "label": "SISTRIX, Google click-through rates by position", "publisher": "SISTRIX", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "method": "80 million keywords, mobile search. Published July 2020, updated 7 July 2025.", "confidence": "high", "caution": "Averages across every kind of query. The study reports a position-one range of 13.7% to 46.9% depending on what else is on the page.", "url": "https://www.sistrix.com/blog/why-almost-everything-you-knew-about-google-ctr-is-no-longer-valid/" }, { "id": "ahrefs-2025", "label": "Ahrefs, How long does it take to rank in Google", "publisher": "Ahrefs", "year": "2025", "market": "Global", "method": "One million random new URLs tracked for a year, plus 1.3 million random United States keywords. Updated 15 May 2025.", "confidence": "high", "caution": "A general web sample. It says nothing about local service businesses specifically.", "url": "https://ahrefs.com/blog/how-long-does-it-take-to-rank-in-google-and-how-old-are-top-ranking-pages/" } ], "relatedTools": [ "https://soudcoh.com/tools/cost-per-lead-calculator", "https://soudcoh.com/tools/google-ads-budget-forecaster", "https://soudcoh.com/tools/review-rating-calculator" ], "licence": { "terms": "Free to reuse with attribution to SoudCoh and a link to the page it came from. Third-party figures remain the property of the publisher named on each row and must keep their market and year attached.", "attribution": "SoudCoh — https://soudcoh.com/tools" } }